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Association Française pour le Production Fourragère

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Possible consequences of climate changes on forage production in France. I-Estimation based on modelization and critical analysis

Paru en 2012 dans Fourrages n°210 (page 87 à 98)

Auteurs : Ruget F.

Co-auteurs : Clastre P., Cloppet E., Lacroix B., Lorgeou J., Moreau J.C., Souverain F.

Mots-clefs : luzerne, prairie, maïs, modèle de croissance, variations saisonnières, France, production fourragère, graminée, mode d'exploitation, eau du sol, variations interannuelles, prévision, changement climatique, dioxyde de carbone

Résumé :

Climate changes carries a risk but also an advantage for forage production, it influences both forage production levels and forage calendar. The results of a single climate model (Arpege) applied to different scenarios of global economic growth, have helped develop the STIC crop model (ACTA-CC project). This model, combined with a thorough knowledge of present and possible practices, provides useful information. For instance, it can help determine possible changes affecting forage grass, maize and alfalfa crops in the main French forage production regions over determined periods of time in the future (21st century). Methods and results are discussed. A second study will apply these scenarios to different types of animal production. 

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